Ger EU-stöd ökat stöd för EU?

EU kämpar i motvind: det finns relativt stora EU-kritiska opinioner i många av medlemsländerna. Ett sätt att förbättra situationen kan vara att dela ut pengar. I ”Can Regional Transfers Buy Public Support? Evidence from EU Structural Policy” undersöks om synen på EU kan relateras till mängden regionalstöd som erhålls:

The effects of these targeted transfers on the public support for the EU are studied by combining a rich dataset on the regional allocation of structural funds payments with opinion survey data. In the empirical section, it is shown that the regional transfers show a positive impact on the public opinion that turns out to be sizeable. An increase of per capita transfers by 100 Euro increases the probability of being supportive of the EU to the extent of approximately 5 to 15%. … First, it is found that the awareness of being a beneficiary of transfers is conditional on a number of further socio-economic characteristics. Education plays an important role, since higher educated peoples’ awareness reacts stronger to regional transfers than lower educated people. Second, the awareness of being supported is generally reflected in higher public support for the EU. Informed people have a 4% higher probability of having a positive opinion of the EU. However, this effect is also heterogeneous and depends on the channel of information. A sizeable effect is mainly detected for those citizens who are direct recipients of EU funds. Other information sources (TV, information signs) also have a positive but much smaller effect, whereas a negative effect is found in those cases where the respondent is acquainted with other people who are direct recipients of funds.

Man kan här tänka sig att EU utnyttjar att de som betalar regionalstöden har betydligt svårare att notera deras existens än mottagarna, delvis därför att betalningen sker genom ländernas betalningar till EU (dvs. i flera steg), delvis därför att nettobetalarna är betydligt fler än nettomottagarna, vilket gör betalningarna mindre per capita i det förra jämfört med i det senare fallet.