Once you allow for a significant role of forward-looking behaviour by households and firms, there is no multiplier.
En ny studie, ”How Big (Small?) Are Fiscal Multipliers?”, ger vid handen att multiplikatorn varierar men att den är noll i länder med rörlig växelkurs, vilket Sverige har:
Based on a novel quarterly dataset of government expenditure in 44 countries, we find that (i) the output effect of an increase in government consumption is larger in industrial than in developing countries, (ii) the fiscal multiplier is relatively large in economies operating under predetermined exchange rate but zero in economies operating under flexible exchange rates; (iii) fiscal multipliers in open economies are lower than in closed economies and (iv) fiscal multipliers in high-debt countries are also zero. (Fetstil tillagd.)
Hur kan det resultat jag lyfter fram förstås? I sammanfattning:
The differences in the responses to increases in government consumption in countries with fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes are largely attributable to differences in the degree of monetary accommodation to fiscal shocks in these nations. The results imply that the central banks’ response to fiscal shocks is crucial in assessing the size of fiscal multipliers.
Bra att veta inför nästa kris, om inte annat.