Sverige är på väg att avskaffa den allmänna värnplikten. Vad blir de samhällsekonomiska effekterna av det? En viktig sådan, nämligen effekten på efterfrågan på högre studier, analyseras i ”Does Military Draft Discourage Enrollment in Higher Education? Evidence from OECD Countries” av Katarina Keller, Panu Poutvaara och Andreas Wagener. På teoretisk grund finns skäl att förvänta sig en negativ effekt:

Military service diminishes the individual returns to human capital. If military service interrupts studies, it will take a longer time to complete higher education. In addition, previously acquired skills and knowledge may depreciate during military service, and their recovery would require extra education. Finally, military service shortens the active period on the job one has chosen. All these effects can be expected to reduce the amount of education (in particular, of post-secondary schooling) that a student desires to obtain.

Hur ser då de empiriska beläggen ut?

We show that for 22 OECD countries since the 1960s, the intensity with which military conscription is enforced has a statistically significantly negative impact on the acquiring of post-secondary education. … Our regressions indicate that for a one standard deviation decrease of the duration of military conscription or of the conscript share (i.e., by almost eight months or by one percent of the population), the share of the working-age population enrolled in post-secondary education would increase by at least 8 and 15 percent, respectively. As human capital is one of the driving forces behind economic growth and prosperity, at least OECD countries appear ill-advised to rely on conscription.

Regeringen och Sten Tolgfors åtgärd på detta område tycks alltså kunna bli gynnsam för Sveriges ekonomi i förlängningen.

Se även inlägget ”Värnplikten är inte överlägsen”.