Studien ”Immigrant Voters, Taxation and the Size of the Welfare State” undersöker diverse intressanta effekter av att Västtyskland tog emot åtta miljoner etniska och relativt fattiga tyskar efter andra världskrigets slut. De tvingades flytta från olika områden i Central- och Östeuropa. Resultat baserade på jämförelser av kommuner som tog emot många respektive få av dessa invandrare:
- Högre skatter: ”Our results show that tax rates in high- and lowinflow cities followed the same trend up until the expellee inflow but significantly diverged thereafter. High-inflow cities significantly raised taxes on agricultural land as well as firms’ capital and profits, and the gap in tax rates persisted until at least the mid-1960s. At the same time, we find no effect on the rates of two other important local taxes at the time, namely on residential property and a firm’s wage bill. We see this as evidence that cities chose not to raise taxes on items that were most needed by poorer parts of society — namely housing and jobs — while shifting the burden of taxation to farmers and business owners.”
- Ändrade offentliga utgifter: ”[H]igh-inflow cities significantly shifted their spending away from non-welfare related items. While they decreased overall per capita spending, they increased spending on social welfare and reduced spending on local infrastructure, housing and schools.”
- Vissa politiska effekter: ”We find that high-inflow cities had considerably higher turnout in local elections, which indicates that the inflow raised the economic and political stakes for the population. We also show that high-inflow cities had significantly larger vote shares for the GB/BHE, a party that represented the interests of the expellee. This provides evidence that the expellees used their voting rights to influence local policy setting. Moreover, while we find no significant effect on the vote shares of the two major parties — namely the conservatives (CDU/CSU) and the social democrats (SPD) — we find evidence that both parties responded to the inflow by nominating more expellees as direct candidates in federal elections.”
- Större stöd för omfördelning: ”[M]ore than 50 years after the expulsions individuals in high-inflow counties show substantially stronger preferences for redistribution than those in low-inflow counties. This suggests that the arrival of the expellees is partly responsible for the significant differences in preferences for redistribution across German regions to this day.”
Frågan är hur överförbara dessa resultat är när invandringen består av personer från annorlunda kulturer. Jag gissar att mönstret står sig, förutom på punkt 4 – av skäl som presenteras här.