Jag trodde att vänsterorienterade regeringar var mindre benägna än högerorienterade regeringar att ge tillstånd till vapenexport. Det verkar, enligt den nya studien ”Government Ideology and Arms Exports”, inte stämma:

The results indicate that left-wing governments are more likely to grant arms export licences than governments of other partisan orientation. The finding is robust to the inclusion of control variables checking for further characteristics of the exporter government. Including interaction terms shows, that left-wing governments care about the human rights protection in importing countries and prefer to export to countries which are not involved in a conflict.

Men vänsterregeringar verkar alltså däremot lägga större vikt vid att exportera till länder som inte är i konflikt med andra.

Hur kan ett resultat som detta, som tyder på en större benägenhet för vänsterregeringar att ge tillstånd till vapenexport, förklaras? Studiens författare, Agnes Brender, skriver:

One explanation might be that issue compensation is taking place. Left-wing governments have to do more because they are perceived as less competent in the policy area (Jensen 2010). In addition, right-wing governments might indeed place a higher emphasis on national security and defence and are therefore less willing to endanger it by selling important technologies to potential enemies, although it would benefit their constituency. Rightwing governments may be more inclined to increase own weapon procurement in order to support the defence industrial base. Another explanation might be that leftist governments avoid military confrontation and show support of allies by sending weapons instead of troops. Finally, left-wing governments might get into difficulty when jobs are at danger, granting more arms exports to reduce the risk of higher unemployment.

I svensk kontext har jag en känsla av att Socialdemokraterna har varit minst lika benägna som borgerliga partier att exportera vapen, vilket i så fall är i linje med denna studies resultat.