Tro på det övernaturliga

Vad förklarar att vissa människor tror på övernaturliga fenomen? Dåliga kunskaper i sannolikhetsteori och en benägenhet att begå det felslut som kallas the conjunction fallacy. I den nya studien ”Paranormal Belief and Susceptibility to the Conjunction Fallacy”, publicerad i Applied Cognitive Psychology, konstateras följande:

Numerous studies have shown paranormal believers misperceive randomness and are poor at judging probability. Despite the obvious relevance to many types of alleged paranormal phenomena, no one has examined whether believers are more susceptible to the ”conjunction fallacy”; that is to misperceiving co-occurring (conjunct) events as being more likely than singular (constituent) events alone. The present study examines believer vs. non-believer differences in conjunction errors for both paranormal and non-paranormal events presented as either a probability or a frequency estimation task. As expected, believers made more conjunction errors than non-believers. 

Det verkar med andra ord finnas en koppling mellan förmåga till rationellt tänkande och insikten att det övernaturliga är en fiktion.