Det suckas ibland över demokratiers bristande förmåga att leverera önskvärda resultat. Det kan gälla klimatpolitik likaväl som tillväxtpolitik. Vissa vurmar för idéer om den starke ledaren, som driver igenom en tydlig reformagenda utan tjafs och distraktioner – the benevolent dictator. Tidigare i år publicerades studien ”Democracy Does Cause Growth”, som bör underminera de flesta idéer av nyss nämnt slag.

Nu har studien ”How Often Do Dictators Have Positive Economic Effects? Global Evidence, 1858–2010” också publicerats, som mer precist undersöker effekterna på ekonomisk tillväxt av diktatorer:

Supposedly well-intentioned dictators are often cited as drivers of economic growth. We examine this claim in a panel of 133 countries from 1858 to 2010. Using annual data on economic growth, political regimes, and political leaders, we document a robust asymmetric pattern: growth-positive autocrats (autocrats whose countries experience larger-than-average growth) are found only as frequently as would be predicted by chance. In contrast, growth-negative autocrats are found significantly more frequently. Implementing regression discontinuity designs (RDD), we also examine local trends in the neighbourhood of the entry into power of growth-positive autocrats. We find that growth under supposedly growth-positive autocrats does not significantly differ from previous realizations of growth, suggesting that even the infrequent growth-positive autocrats largely “ride the wave” of previous success. On the other hand, our estimates reject the null hypothesis that growth-negative rulers have no effects. Taken together, our results cast serious doubt on the benevolent autocrat hypothesis.

Synnerligen intressant. Nu finns det än mindre skäl att drömma om starka ledare som kan genomföra den politik vi ibland inte tycker oss se tillräckligt av i demokratier.